La Niña looms. Will San Diego’s luck hold this winter?

San Diego County, as far as weather is concerned, often carries the smug air of a guest at the Thanksgiving table who neither brings nor takes too much—just clear skies and dry streets to boast about, while its neighbors to the north dabble in calamity.

This week has been no exception. While Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo have been slapped about by rain and snow like hapless travelers on the West Coast’s stormy highway, San Diego dodged the “atmospheric river” entirely. The city watched from afar, as one might observe a quarrel next door—curious but unaffected.

Not that San Diego is always spared from nature’s untidiness. Back in 2019, a Thanksgiving storm arrived like an uninvited in-law, hurling 50-mile-per-hour winds and soaking the county in rain so heavy it carved rivulets into the coastline and left folks in the valleys slogging about like ducks.

And let us not forget 2009, when Thanksgiving broke a 164-day dry spell with the kind of rain that felt like nature suddenly remembered its job.

Or 1976, when Borrego Springs shivered at a bone-chilling 32 degrees—winter arriving as early as a miser at a free meal.

Even 1991 brought its own theatrics, with winds and snow knocking out power for 60,000 souls in Southern California, proving that the Golden State isn’t always golden.

Yet, time has its way of evening things out. Fast forward to 2021, when November turned downright balmy, setting records for warmth like a giddy summer overstaying its welcome. Now, weather sages are predicting another La Niña—a weak one, mind you, but enough to toss its mischievous dice.

La Niña, that weather phenomenon with the personality of a fickle cat, usually divides the land, bestowing rain on the north and drought on the south. But this time, there’s chatter it might show a bit of generosity to Southern California, perhaps even San Diego.

The thing about La Niña, though, is it likes to keep you guessing. Sometimes the dividing line between wet and dry wiggles its way south, other times it parks itself further up, leaving California parched while Oregon and Washington grow waterlogged. Yet, hope lingers. Some experts whisper that a weak La Niña might nudge rain clouds a little farther down, letting Southern California sip from the cup usually reserved for the northern counties.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Rain in California is like a rare wine—always in demand but prone to being either too much or too little. When it comes just right, though, it fills reservoirs, builds snowpacks, and brings life to a dry land. A weak La Niña could even spell good news for the mountains, promising more snow than the stronger versions of its moody kin.

Still, in these times of changing climates and unpredictable skies, one lesson remains: Nature doesn’t owe us anything, least of all a forecast we can bank on. California might hope for a wet winter, but it would do well to prepare for surprises—both the good and the calamitous. After all, the only thing you can count on with the weather is that it’ll change its mind.