Yes, we still have avocados, for now

Henry Avocado officials check out some Escondido fruit in this undated company photo/Henry Avocado corp/

Ah, Avocados;  it’s been a tough month, but Henry Avocado Corp. is back from a listeria recall and so far, no Trump border closure. His threatened U.S.-Mexico border closure would mean no avocados on store shelves within three week, according to experts.

With all the controversy, however, avocado prices jumped higher than an NBA all-star at the dunking competition. Prices have remained higher than usual while demand remained about the same.

Longtime Escondido-based Henry Avocados voluntarily recalled whole avocados it packed on Harmony Grove Drive on March 23 following an FDA declaration the California-grown fruit because they were potentially contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes. This affected Henry avocados shipped to Arizona, California, Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

Avocados imported from Mexico and distributed by Henry Avocado were not subject to the recall and can be eaten without concern, said the company.

“Until then the market had the same prices for about two months,” said Jorge Mardones of OTC Produce LLC. in McAllen, Tex. “It created a huge jump in price.”

Wholesale avocado priced doubled, with size 48 avocados — a standard industry measurement referring to 48 avocados in a 25-pound box — zooming from $22-$24 per box to $39-$41 per box.

Production in California however was still moving along, though notably volume is down overall out of California. according to industry watchdog Fresh Plaza.

Henry Avocado original Escondido ranch in 1925 when the company was founded./Henry Avocado

The Irvine, Ca.-based California Avocado Commission reported the current estimate for the California avocado crop for November 2018 to October 2019 at 175 million pounds. That’s about half the volume of 2017-2018.

“The Listeria was just from one grower and they got it very early and are doing everything they can to fix the problem,” Mardones said. “I think in two weeks, everyone will forget about this.”

News of the Henry listeria scare went worldwide. Xinhua, official Chinese new service said California Avocado Commission leaders were quite confident when responding to the recent recall.

“Only one grower was affected and there were no reported illnesses to consumers,” Ken Melban, vice president for Industry Affairs of the California Avocado Commission, told Xinhua in an interview. “But he voluntarily recalled his products anyway as a precautionary measure in an excess of caution.”

“That’s a perfect example of the system working to protect consumers,” he added.

Henry implemented a thorough sanitization of their packing facility which would be conducted by a non-affiliated, third-party cleaning company and undergo additional testing before resuming operations.

“This abundance of caution is part of California’s avocado growers’ commitment to providing the world’s highest quality products and trusted environmental oversight,” Tom Bellamore, president of the California Avocado Commission, told Xinhua.

Meanwhile, down in old Mexico

While California avocados were stable, the same could not be said for our neighbors in Mexico where avocados experienced sort of a panic run. Virtually all of the avocados in U.S. stores are coming from Mexico these days despite California production, which had a poor production year due to the cold and rainy weather.

“The supply is less than two weeks ago,” Mardones said. “Two weeks ago I had a warehouse full of avocados and today it’s a few pallets. Everyone’s asking for avocados.”

Not coincidentally, the run on avocados coincided with Donald Trump’s weekend threats to close the entire U.S.-Mexico border due to his obsessions with walls and asylum seekers from Central America.

According to distributors and growers, Americans would run out of avocados in three weeks if Mexican imports were halted.

“More avocados are being consumed in the United States than ever before,” said Mike Hillebrecht, longtime Escondido avocado farmer. “Mexico grows so much more and has such a bigger industry.”

Hillebrecht told NBC 7 San Diego that the price of avocados could go up significantly if the border closes.

Bloomberg reported Hass Avocado prices surged Tuesday as the result of importers stockpiling produce. However, things may get worse. Vice president and senior analyst at Rabobank, Roland Fumasi, told Bloomberg that prices could “easily double or triple if we shut down the border.”

Closing the entire U.S. border with Mexico would also put the brakes on more than $1.6 billion worth of goods that cross back and forth every day, including 50 million pounds of fresh Mexican produce that now fills 100 warehouses in Nogales, Ariz., according to NPR.

One importer warned that the U.S. would run out of avocados in three weeks, but guacamole is the least of it. Fresh tomatoes, peppers, melons and eggplant for the whole country would soon be in short supply.

“Probably over half of what most consumers put in their shopping bag when it comes to fresh produce, they would find reduced quantities and higher prices,” said Lance Jungmeyer, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas.

One importer warned that the U.S. would run out of avocados in three weeks, but guacamole is the least of it. Fresh tomatoes, peppers, melons and eggplant for the whole country would soon be in short supply.

“Probably over half of what most consumers put in their shopping bag when it comes to fresh produce, they would find reduced quantities and higher prices,” said Lance Jungmeyer, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas.

Steve Barnard, the president of Mission Produce, the largest distributor and grower of avocados in the world, told Reuters that because Mexico supplies most of the avocados sold in the U.S. at this time of year, closing the border would mean running out of avocados in as little as three weeks.

California’s growing season is just starting, so avocados grown there wouldn’t be ready for another month or so. Of note, Barnard told Reuters that California has a “very small crop.” Depending on how long trade was halted, that could mean fewer avocados in stores and higher prices on the ones that are available.

Other produce that could be in short supply include tomatoes, cucumbers, blackberries, and raspberries, the majority of which all currently come from Mexico.

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